Dreamteam

TooSerious has moved!

A MESSAGE TO ALL - TS HAS MOVED HERE: http://www.tooserious.com.au - If you're still using this site, you're not going to find the 09 data!

So update your bookmarks, get over there and enjoy!!

The end of a dream... (team)

So, this is the end... the last week of the season.

The time where dreams are built, and crushed.

Or something like that.

There's a handful of you out there who still in it to take out the championship, though you're going to need a lot of luck to get over the all dominating convicts.

So dominating infact, that he's by far the favorite to take out both the overall, and the eliminator.

Thanks to our friends at BigFooty, I've got a copy of his starting team, so unless someone tells me not to, I'll probably do a bit of a review of it, cause it certainly broke the norms when it comes to team selection.

And for those of you still in the grand final, good luck. May all your Pavs play and all your Porps not pop a shoulder out.

Don't forget though, we've still got the finals comp running over the next few weeks... we've almost got 100 players signed up... aiming for 200, so get your friends, you family, heck,  even your dog if you really want to... (Rovers Reckers - Though it might be tricky to wire prize money to a dog... )

And during the finals comp, I'll be releasing the 2009 planner.

Essentially I've been in discussion with some fairly knowledgable folk, and between us we'll be trying our hardest to predict both the magic number for salaries, as well as any salary discounts. Cause you can't start planning too soon...

So I guess that's it, the EPL comp will be running over summer, however throughout it, I'll keep trying to update the site with new features and with fingers crossed, a complete re-haul of the front end. (And finally get away from these clunky tables!)

Catch you all later.

Finals Dream Team Competition.

Yep, they're running it again! The end of years final comp.

http://aflfinals.virtualsports.com.au/?p=league

It should be fun again - heck, I might even hook up an extra tab to TooSerious so you can play around with your squad. (And don't forget, some players have swapped positions. Deledio is no longer a Forward, while Lockyer is...)

I've set up a TooSerious league if anyone is interested in popping in: 877579

Chad.... your time is up

Its finally happened. The Chad is no more. With the surgeon's knife poised those who have stuck with the mighty DT warrior finally have to pull the pin, and there are still over 45,000 owners. Given his rather savage price drop this could be difficult for those with minimal trades and nothing in the kitty.

So with Chad sitting at $295k - who do you pick up? Well there are options galore (most are not worth looking at though), so here is my one (maybe) line guide, in DT average points order:

 

Mackie - $363k - rebounding defender in the best team in the country. Great option even if it looks like a strong Geelong breeze will blow him over.

Wheatley - $392k - rebounding defender in the worst team in the country and the most expensive backman available. Only for those with "the minerals".

Bock - $366k - likes playing kick to kick in the backline of Neil Craig's "attacking" team, laughable team, great DT defender option.

Bowden - $391k - another expensive risk, although if he kicked rushed behinds rather than handballed them...

Fisher - $373k - awesome choice - 99 average over the past 7 weeks can not be ignored. His parents are still wondering what they did wrong with Leigh.

McMahon - $350k - who? 100 average for the past month.

Shaw - $303k - still a premium defender even if he is a bit homophobic this year ("aarrgghhh there is a man standing next to me").

Goddard - $342k - tadgh kennelly's slightly less injury prone Aussie mate.

Milburn - $332k - had to wash the leather off his hands at quarter time last week after gathering 19 possies. Apparently used too much soap though with only 13 for the rest of the match.

Johncock - $323k - a smaller, cheaper version of Bock, you get what you pay for.

Brennan - $343k - 96 ave over past month with NO scores between 65 and 121, low correlation with Heath Shaw for those looking to smooth out investment returns in a volatile market....

Wirrpanda - $294k - I like this bloke but wouldn't even consider a west coast player now

Guerra - $284k - most over rated DT backman, let all the other suckers pick him, or at least wait a fortnight for his impersonation of the Australian share market.

Gilbee - $307k - not having as good a year as last but class player that team mates look for. Lots of owners point to that.

Birchall - $288k - the smart mans Hawthorn DT defender, recommended for his consistent but unspectacular DT scoring.

Bradshaw - $276k - was 80k cheaper 4 months ago, injury concerns and the principle of his price increase means I wouldn't trade him in.

Drummond - $273k - potential galore at this price, will he stay fit though? I reckon he is worth the punt.

Hargrave - $347k - 51.3pt average for first 9 games, 97.8pt average for last 7 games, what the....? Was worth $190k 7 weeks ago.

so out of all that lot who would i recommend. Well depends on your position:

 

Me first, I have money!

 

If you have shares in an oil company and want to spend that wealth on something other than a mansion in the desert the obvious standouts are:

Mackie / Bock and Fisher - all about $370k, all play that rebound defender for their respective teams. My pick is Mackie but Sam Fisher with his 99 ave over the past 7 weeks is flying like his team.

 

I wear a kilt in the cold.

 

The discerning choices for those on a budget would be Birchall (consistent, nothing big) and Drummond (with potential comes injury risk). Whilst I don't like Guerra his price is likely to plummet over the next fortnight.....

Black Thursday.

So, who is dreading this evening? I know I am. Usually, Thursday evenings have been a wonderful time to see your team being named, but sadly, all I can think of is the following.

Burgoyne, Macdonald, Ablett, Armfield, Porpz. Maybe even Brown

All out injured.

And an ugly bench to cover for them.

Combine that with your Mcleods, Myers, Deledio, Richo, Fraser, Kennelly, Black, Ling, Salopek, Cornes, Burton...

And there has got to be a lot of coaches out there that are struggling.

So, who is dreading the teams tonight?

How many 50/50's to play have you got?

And perhaps most importantly, if you wear a couple of zeros (and are out of the real race), will you still make the finals?

who hates the split round?

ME!! Not only does it take too long to finish it resulted in my getting knocked out of the eliminator (76 pt loss - thanks for the donut chad / peter....)

Anyway, like any good AFL coach i have decided that i will "draw some positives" from the loss. Namely it eases any pressure and allows a shift in focus from the eliminator and national rank to solely league glory (and the cash on the line....).

But, much like everybody my backline is struggling. Without the likes of some sort of consistency (ie Bock, Fisher and / or Mackie) it is very ordinary. This is a sad breakdown of the average scores from each line for my team last week:

FWDS: 101.57
RUCKS: 113
MIDS: 99.5
BACKS: 63.5 (which ignores Chad's zero - include it and we have a 54 average.....)

However with 6 consecutive scores over 2000, a national rank holding steady at around 500, a league position of 2nd, 5 trades left, 200k in the bank and a final month with games against teams ranked 7th, 14th, 11th and 10th in the league we are sitting nicely.

Sure the injured Power triplets are a concern (Chad, Burgoyne, Salopek) but with the defenders hopefully returning and Cothcin filling the midfield gap nicely i can live with that. However, as usual there are a few players that i am keeping an eye on.

So, if your sitting fighting for a top 8 spot and looking for a gun here are a few players that i would be looking at:

This week or never:

Heath Shaw: $301,000 - BE at 26 and a backline necessity at this price, wont get any cheaper.
Brent Guerra: $320,100 - i think there are better defenders but if you want him its probably now or never, another with a low BE.

Jimmy Bartel: $396,700 - after racking up 41 possies in the Cats demolition of the Crows his BE is back to 53 so grab him now.
Daniel "Mr Handball" Cross: $379,600 - sure he should kick it more but with an average of 101.5 and a BE of 61 he is cheep cheep.

Aaron Sandilands: $346,900 - one of about 2 upgrade options if your second ruck isn't Simmonds. Better than Hille and a BE of 59, jump on.

Alan Didak: $358,100 - BE of 72 but an average of 98, all for only 358k? BARGAIN!
Paul Chapman: $375,700 - really Didak is a better option but Chappy at the cats is a good option too, BE of 79

Keep an eye on over the next month:

If your in a position to save some trades for closer to finals (less chance of trading in that star who gets injured on you...) well here are a few i would keep in mind for a months time.

Gary Ablett: $489,900 - the little master put in a 78 whilst the cats dominated without him. BE up to 152. Another quiet one and he will crash back to earth with a big, big thud.
Simon Black: $372,700 - Mr Consistency has fallen from grace with a couple of consecutive shockers. Might be carrying an injury but at this price and a 163 BE he could be $50k cheaper and a good option in a few weeks.
Scott Thompson: $436,800 - after recapturing last years form Thompson has gone back to struggling a bit. Still averaging 104 but with a BE of 197(!!!) his fall in price next week is like death and taxes....
Lance Franklin: $374,800 - Buddy is set to drop even more with a BE of 141.

Other notables are Johnno Brown (if you were stupid enough not to get him 3 months ago...), Aker, Cooney, Robert Murphy, Swan, all with BE of 125++.

Round 13 review.

Alright, it's happened. And it's taken this long to get over it enough to show my face.

I am out of the eliminator.

Out by 13 points.

13 points with the following under performers
Macdonald - 56
Milburn - 47
Burgoyne - 42
Birchall - 53
Cornes - 44
Deledio - 51

And an opposition who had the unstoppable Sam Mitchell (141) and Jarryd Morton (98)

On the plus side, he did have Scott Thompson (59) as captian VS my GAblett (147)

But not even the great man himself could get me over the line.

Having said that, Burgoyne and Cornes in the backline looks pretty ugly, I sure hope the "prove the footballing world wrong" and play Cornes. That's right, not. tanking.

Cheers all.

Quick wrap up of the U18's.

Alright, I'm just going to blatantly rip off the Freak-o this week... though I'll throw in a few comments at the bottom. :)

WESTERN AUSTRALIA
83 – Matt DeBoer: Here’s a player who will be a good cash cow for 2008. Is a ball magnet who currently leads the carnival in disposals with 69 in three games.
72 – Nicholas Naitanui: Another encouraging performance from the big man who will excite crowds for the next decade. Won 18 hitouts and had 13 disposals but failed to take a mark which is why I still see him as having questionable DT potential.
70 – Neville Jetta: Exciting indigenous player who picked up 15 disposals and provided plenty of run. Needs to win a bit more of the ball to be a serious DT prospect though.
58 – Stephen Hill: Expect this star to be a bolter in this year’s draft ala Scott Pendlebury in 2005. Has clean hands, is a super kick and has genuine pace. One of my favourites at the minute.
50 – Daniel Rich: Another disappointing effort from the highly touted midfielder. Had only eight disposals and will need to pull his finger out in the last two games to remain in top-five calculations for the draft.

VIC COUNTRY
87 – Jack Ziebell: Looms as a possible top six pick after a superb performance on Saturday where he picked up 22 disposals. Has poise and is a gun at the stoppages. May play AFL next year.
49 – Steele Sidebottom: Has now played three good games in a row and dominates at TAC Cup level for flag favourites Murray. I’m a big fan and expect him to be a handy DT player as early as 2009.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA
80 – Jay Shannon: In his first appearance for the carnival Shannon picked up 21 disposals and laid three tackles to be one of his state’s best.
68 – Rhys O’Keefe: Has been the Croweaters’ best player throughout the carnival, averaging 17 disposals and three rebound 50s as a running defender.
46 – Hamish Hartlett: Started off well with eight disposals in the opening term but struggled after that. Still yet to have over 14 disposals in a game in the carnival.

VIC METRO
101 – Jack Watts: Put his hand up to be the No.1 selection of this year’s draft – in front of Naitanui – with a sensational display both in the air and on the deck. Took seven marks, won 17 disposals and booted five goals in the best individual game of the Championships to date.
94 – David Zaharakis: Has now put in three solid performances on the wing. He’s a running machine who finds plenty of the ball and is a good chance to play AFL in 2009.
79 – Shaun McKernan: Corey’s brother put in another impressive display, taking seven marks and winning 15 hitouts.

Wow, will Rich be the lock that everyone thought he was? regardless, I still see him getting picked up by either Freo or West Coast, and with their sus youth policies, it might be interesting.
Ziebell, from all reports, has been looking good, I'm gunna be penciling him in.
DeBoer, another great performance.
And Jack Watts, put his hand up for #1 and put his name on my radar. Will definitely be tracking this kid.

And, can we all take a moment of silence to remember Eric Wakawakawakawakawaka (As Fozzie used to say). Terribly unfortunate to go down injured during the carnival. Luckily he has done enough to keep his name up on the radar though.

backline woes

In a Dream Team season plagued with backline problems it just doesn't seem to be getting any better. Lack of talent combined with injury after injury means you are more than likely to be not alone in having a backline with more holes than a soup strainer.

The only true premium back in Chad Cornes has been playing injured for some months and he decided to add a calf strain to his list of ailments this week. Combine that with his Power team mate Peter Burgoyne's dodgy hammy and Beau "I can't get a senior game" Waters completely stuffed elbow thanks to a pointless WAFL appearance.

Adding "injury" to insult Jake King, Brad Symes and Daniel Bradshaw have been warming the pine for a few weeks whilst everyones answer to any forced DT trades, Andrew McLeod, decided that he would also take a holiday.

Given my own personal predicament with a few of the above players some major analysis and review of options is needed and this is what i personally think of the situation.

It's f**ked.

But beyond that pearl of wisdom you might like to consider this.

Cornes: Latest news is he isn't going under the knife so keep him unless his season is over, his potential talent and the saving of a trade should be too important.

Burgoyne: Keep him on your bench. He is listed as 2 weeks, one of which is the split round, so a chance to only miss one game.

Waters: Trade, no point holding $264k of nothingness on your bench.

King and Bradshaw: Listed as "tests" this week so a chance to play. Definitely no point trading either of those two.

So what options do you have?

Well here is my personal opinion on some of the main backline players, placed in a vague order of preference:

Over $300,000

Heath Shaw: ($303,000). Simple, if you don't have him, get him. Cheap and beyond struggling with an opponent / tag (its a team sport Heath...!) he is capable of awesome scores, 8 94+ scores out of 13 isn't shabby.

Lindsay Gilbee ($308,000). If you have Shaw but not Gilbee once again its simple, get him. He can cop a tag like Shaw but is getting back into form. Has the added benefit of being devastatingly accurate by foot and therefore constantly used in forward thrusts by his team mates. 87.5 average over the past month.

Andrew Mackie ($356,500). I do love this boy. Currently has the best backline average in DT. 50% of his scores have been 96 +, yet only 5,680 own him?

Bock ($351,100) / Johncock ($343,000). Both Crows, both pretty consistent and priced accordingly.

Sam Fisher ($355,100). Basically Bock's St Kilda equivalent. Back in form with his last 6 weeks averaging 92.5.

Brendon Goddard ($332,600). Pretty consistent but injuries can be a concern.

Joel Bowden ($344,700): Went back into defence and scored 180 this week. 32 kicks, 7 handballs & 23 marks along with 1 solitary free kick for - and nothing else, pure DT gold. Is he back, will he continue in defence? Risk / reward could be well worth it, prior to his 180 he did average 74 since returning to the side which is ok, and if he stays back in defence to recapture his previous DT godliness you might get one up on the competition.

Jordan McMahon ($307,600). Only 7,581 have him and he has been pretty consistant with an 82.38 average, scores of 43 to 126.

Paul Wheatley ($360,900). Currently the most expensive back but only 1,146 owners. Last six games have averaged 94.8. Cost and playing for the Dees means you probably shouldn't go near him.

Jarred Brennan ($320,600). He is about as predictable as an angry female and just as much fun to have around. But is the fact he spent time in the midfield against the Crows on the weekend, and racked up 138 DT points worth the punt...?

Under $300,000:

At this time of year i am always hesitant on trading in less than premium players. But if all you can afford is something a little cheaper you might be looking at these guys:

Birchall ($275,700) / Ladson ($282,300). Probably only had one or two bad scores each although i would learn towards Birchall. For all those people contemplating Guerra at $320k - let me tell you this. If you remove the lowest and highest scores from Guerra and Birchall you get averages of 82 for Guerra and 79 for Birchall - is that worth $50k?

Craig Bolton ($258,000). Sydney player which makes him ugly. But with a 73.5 average he could prove to be a viable option at a very attractive price.

David Wirrpanda ($282,500). Been consistent this year for the Eagles but will he score well in a team that is really struggling?

Michael Osborne ($264,800). Average DT'er and owned by way too many people (55,818) after he started with 109, 105, 89 and everyone piled onto his bandwagon. Avoid.

Heh, a late review of round 12.

First things first.

The Eliminator.

I got so amazingly lucky this week. 1954 - and made it though.

Mind you, the efforts of McIntosh, Shaw, Macdonald and my favorite, Captain Franklin, tried their darnest to sink me, while on the other side, we saw smashing efforts by Hille, Osborne and Murphy, I managed to squeek through by 50 odd points because he wore a Jake King donut in the backline.

*phew*

Now, you may have seen me say - McIntosh. OUCH.

but what to do... Sadly, I'm feeling that the answer to that is: Something crazy.

So here's the plan.

I'm going to field Kruezer... and downgrade McIntosh.

However, there is method to this madness... my final upgrade that I really needed to do was Jack. (Yes, I still have Jack on the field! How am I in the eliminator?? :D)

By downgrading McIntosh (Ave: 70), and fielding Kruezer (Ave: 50), I'll be able to upgrade Jack (Ave: 62) to Gablett (Ave: 117).

This would net me an extra 35 points per week, but also sure up my Captain...

Yeah, crazy... like a FOX!

So, if you're in the Eliminator this week, give us a shout out! There's only 1000 of us left!