As part of the latest upcoming update to TooSerious, I've been tabluating teams For and Against scores.
Amusingly, I've found that the current ladder (Based on for/against percentages for the ladder, along with any win-losses) would read like this.
| Team | Points | Percentage |
| HAW | 40 | 111.1163 |
| SYD | 36 | 116.3856 |
| GEE | 36 | 113.5203 |
| WBD | 32 | 112.3152 |
| ADE | 32 | 109.4601 |
| COL | 28 | 108.5933 |
| BRL | 28 | 100.7520 |
| RIC | 20 | 103.9645 |
| CAR | 20 | 101.8575 |
| PTA | 16 | 99.1661 |
| KAN | 16 | 94.7696 |
| STK | 16 | 94.6065 |
| ESS | 12 | 82.5621 |
| WCE | 8 | 89.9383 |
| FRE | 8 | 86.6608 |
| MEL | 4 | 83.5211 |
Which is pretty close to the actual ladder.
Which makes me wonder, can we use this data to make predictions about how we think the ladder will look at seasons end?
Teams 1-6, look pretty locked in. especially when you consider how much higher their percentages are over the rest of the league.
The both 4 teams look like they will stay down there (Based on percentages)
Which leaves 6 teams to fill the final two spots in the finals.
The current *real* 8th and 9th teams (STK and KAN) have the lowest percentage here, and as such, I don't think they will make the finals.
That said, the team coming 7th in percentage, Richmond, seems to have a nack of losing games the shouldn't have, and will be punished by a lack of wins.
Which leaves the final 2 spots in the finals open to Carlton, Port and Brisbane...
I'm gunna lock in Brisbane and ... Port. Only because their run home is marginally easier than Carltons... (though round 19 might be a dooozy!)
Interesting stuff. Didn't know Sydney were such a good SuperCoach side. But, I spose they keep teams to lower scores therefore the high %, yeah?
It's also good to see that I have 6 players from the bottom eight sides in my starting 22.
Posted by: BrayDog | June 13, 2008 at 03:36 PM
you want to know what suprised me the most.
Not only do Sydney have the Least Against, they also have the Most For.
They're a dangerous unit - Get on 'em as a smokey for the flag. I'm calling it now! Supercoach told me to!
Posted by: Walesy | June 13, 2008 at 03:41 PM
This could drive a SC approach in future.
Your team really from here-on should focus on having a D/M/F each for Haw/Geel/WB/Syd/Adel and then 7 top ups from the rest making up your starting 22.
Winning teams are SC scoring teams, and spreading the load across multiple successful teams is a smart strategy.
An affordable and winning SC team from here would be:
Osborne/Mitchell/Franklin
Milburn/G Ablett/Chapman
Gilbee/Cooney/Akermanis
Mattner/Kirk/O'Keefe
McLeod/S Thompson/Porplyzia
D - C Cornes/Newman
M - N Stevens
F - J Brown/Riewoldt
R - Cox/Sandilands
Posted by: Lucas | June 13, 2008 at 04:49 PM
I tipped Sydney for the spoon this year. Haha.
Posted by: BrayDog | June 13, 2008 at 06:08 PM